Think ahead to 10 years from now. What will the world look like in 2020? How will consumer behavior change? What should logistics companies do now to prepare for the future?

Deutsche Post attempted to answer these questions in its global Delphi study published in June (click here to view the study). The Delphi method is a technique to develop predictions about the future. The Deutsche Post study involved two stages. In the first stage, a group of specialists working in a wide range of theoretical and practical fields put forward various theses about possible future developments. These were discussed and debated until the experts converged on a set of 81 theses.

In the second stage, a different wider panel of 900 industry experts reviewed the 81 theses and rated how much they agreed with them. There were regional differences in the responses, but several trends stood out such as the rising importance of Asia, the growing interest in green issues, and the continued growth in Internet technologies.

The poll below lists some of the most relevant predictions from the Deutsche Post survey that may affect the Postal Service.

[poll id="45"]

Do you agree with these predictions? Do you think the Postal Service is ready to meet the challenges of the next decade? If not, how should the Postal Service respond?

This blog is hosted by the OIG's Risk Analysis Research Center (RARC).

Comments (12)

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  • anon

    Its the waiting in line at the PO that gets to me. Always seems to be at least 30 mins. i can ship at FedEx in ten.

    Aug 24, 2011
  • anon
    Australian deve...

    I am agree with the GOLDIE comment.Thanks for giving such an informative blog.

    May 26, 2011
  • anon

    I agree with everything that is written here. I think that the first thesis is the most correct one. The prices of fuel I mean. These will just keep going up as long as we don't find an alternative energy source that will be able to completly take fuel's place.

    Oct 11, 2010
  • anon

    How long can the earth's magnetic field able to withstand Cosmic Radiations?

    Jul 02, 2010
  • anon

    Just curious why there is no test bed for getting with the market we are losing to.... providing secure email, on a goverment official email provided by the United States Postal Service????? We are so understaffed due to withholding, receeding jobs, why not give customers a way to communicate with advertising companies, vice versa, while charging a small fee???

    May 13, 2010
  • anon

    It could have USPS built right in to every two. I imagine a small box popping open (with USPS PRIORITY MAIL on the side) or unfolding to reveal its contents….I have received so plenty of forwarded messages that have animation, & small gif files that I thought it would be easy for me to do.The USPS could promote through e-mail this way.Could the USPS design an add-on for G-mail, or Yahoo, etc, that would assist people with this?I have gotten frustrated recently when I tried to “spice Up” an e-mail I sent out trying to raise funds for a charity.Boy was I wrong. What about e-mail add-on’s?A letter…some pics maybe… so plenty of possibilities.

    Apr 15, 2010
  • anon

    You may want to read our blog section: "Opportunities for USPS". It is located under the URL: "" Kind regards sanityadmin <a href="" rel="nofollow">Archive for category: Opportunitues for USPS</a>

    Oct 11, 2009
  • anon

    What about e-mail add-on's? The USPS could advertise through e-mail this way. I have gotten frustrated recently when I tried to "spice Up" an e-mail I sent out trying to raise money for a charity. I have received so many forwarded messages that have animation, and little gif files that I thought it would be easy for me to do. Boy was I wrong. Could the USPS design an add-on for G-mail, or Yahoo, etc, that would assist people with this? It could have USPS built right into every one. I imagine a little box popping open (with USPS PRIORITY MAIL on the side) or unfolding to reveal its contents....A letter...some pictures maybe... so many possibilities. I'm sure it would need updates to keep it fresh and exciting....but that's what it takes these days.

    Sep 14, 2009
  • anon

    You know what else people love? FREE STUFF! AND COOL "SPONSORED-UP" stuff like RACE CARS and BASS BOATS. I have seen people put adds on there own things just for the look! Even I can go on line and apply for sponsors to pay for mods to my car that I use every day. I even noticed people buying jackets that made them look like race car drivers. The USPS can do this too. If you can wrap a car or boat....then you can wrap an envelope. WITH SPONSORS. It seems to me that businesses would be willing to pay for a spot on something that would get attention from the huge customer base that the USPS can offer. Customers would notice when they sealed it and then once again when it was received. People have gotten so numb to saturation mailers and all the other "JUNK", that they just throw them away without even looking twice. If its a letter from dear ole mom...then they pay attention. And remember dear ole mom got the envelope for FREE! People remember the name of companies and businesses when they think they are getting more from the business than they do when its the other way around. Big businesses could even design, print, and pay for their own envelopes to give away if they choose. Either way the USPS is getting paid. I have thrown this idea around with many people and everyone seems to love it. If you put some thought into this you may see how many avenues this idea could take you. It could even be a 5 cent envelope. Whatever the case, I think its possible anyway.

    Sep 14, 2009
  • anon

    I agree with the miss-handling of parcels. It seems that with the fluctuations of mail volumes, the clerks end up short-handed at the wrong times and one may start to "throw" parcels for a moment then to have to leave and perform another duty. Upon returning (if it is the same clerk) they clerk may have forgotten about the small fragile or do not bend parcel and unintentionally place or "throw" another larger or more heavy parcel on top of it. Once it is out of sight it is out of mind. I have had to personally apologize to customers for damaged parcels on several occasions. It is very embarrassing. especially with all the BAD MEDIA we have been getting. Maybe the "throwing" of parcels and the use of a big white hamper for a catchers mitt should get a make over.

    Sep 14, 2009
  • anon

    As a postal employee I find that the more accessible the product is, the more it is used. For instance I went on vacation , picked out all these post cards...No stamps to be found~!~ I try to encourage customers that I know ship parcels etc to use our service , there's just not that much out there in way of flyers etc to show them how easy it is to use us and how much cheaper our prices are. We rural carriers use to be able to give out the orange envelopes for stamp orders , you can't get them now with right price anyway. Now, we get the stamps by mail. Well, in today's world the customer wants things that instant. There is so much more we could do , if we just put forth the effort in really looking at how people live today.ONE more thing &amp; it's a biggie...When I buy products that have to be shipped , no businesses want to use us . I've been told because we lose and break and they end up w/ poor customer feedback. I see it everyday when parcels are being thrown that say FRAGILE , DONOT BEND, and the clerks just chunk it right in the buggie..Not good business practice..I hope someone is listening. I value my job and my customers.. Goldie Sorry to be so long.

    Aug 24, 2009
  • anon

    The postal service can compete with the competition by setting up a toll free number or making charts available to show the cost of packages per weigh, size and/or depth of packages and by giving customers access to shipping and weight information for packages. Especially if the customer can weigh their packages from home. Then they can also allow for pickup and delivery by delivering boxes and tape to frequent clients as an added attraction.

    Aug 24, 2009

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